options signals free · May 14, 2024 0

President Biden unveils a historic wave of tariffs on \’strategic\’ Chinese imports

 

The White House formally unveiled a sweeping array of new tariffs on Chinese goods Tuesday that will raise duties on $18 billion in Chinese imports.

The long-awaited announcement will touch an array of sectors, with steel to semiconductors to medical products feeling new duties as soon as this year.

Electric vehicles are a key focus of the announcement, with duties there set to quadruple in 2024 from 25% to 100%.

The actions also notably do not include the lowering of more than $300 billion in Trump-era duties on China. Biden largely re-upped former President Donald Trump's policy — and added new tariffs on certain sectors on top.

"The President is taking a tough, strategic approach combining investment at home with enforcement against China in key sectors," national economic advisor Lael Brainard said ahead of the news.

Biden's top economic aide also drew a sharp contrast with Trump's trade record in her comments to reporters. She said Trump's moves in office "did not deliver" and that his current 2024 campaign trail promises would spike inflation.President Joe Biden arrives in Washington, DC Monday after a trip to the west coast and spending Sunday in Delaware. (MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images) (MANDEL NGAN via Getty Images)Most of the new tariffs announced this week could be felt quickly and are set to be implemented this year.

Others — such as new duties on semiconductors and batteries — are set to phase in more slowly, in 2025 and 2026.

In total, the sweeping White House announcement Tuesday will impose increased duties on Chinese steel, aluminum, semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, critical minerals, solar cells, ship-to-shore cranes, and various medical products.Will it lead to a new trade war?Tuesday’s announcement is the culmination of a two-year government review of the so-called "Section 301" duties on China that were first imposed in the Trump administration.

The announcement also sets up a marked contrast between how trade policy may look in 2025 depending on which man wins.

These new muscular tariffs from Biden still are a contrast with what is promised by his White House challenger.

Trump is proposing historically high new tariffs, including a 60% tariff on imports from China. His allies say that sharp hike will allow US manufacturing to grow in the US, but it's an idea often criticized by some economists and trade experts as being too blunt.

But Biden's aggressive posture on the topic also promises to ratchet up tensions between the world's two largest economies.

China's Foreign Ministry responded to advance reports of today’s news by charging Biden with politicizing trade and adding that "China will take all necessary measures to defend its rights and interests."Story continuesOn Monday, a senior Biden official downplayed the chances of Chinese retaliation, saying the US government has been telegraphing its concerns to the Chinese for years through many channels. Of Tuesday news, this official added: "I don’t think these concerns will come as a surprise."

Others are less sanguine, including Ashley Craig, a D.C.-based international trade lawyer at Venable LLP.

He said this week's news means "we are looking at a further deterioration of the US/Sino trade relationship," adding "perhaps the biggest catalyst here is the presidential election cycle."Chinese President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan wave as they arrive at Liszt Ferenc Budapest airport during a recent trip to Europe. (SZILARD KOSZTICSAK/POOL/AFP via Getty Images) (SZILARD KOSZTICSAK via Getty Images)How it will affect the US economyHow it will affect the US economy will certainly be a focus for investors.

They need to pay attention, Interactive Brokers Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick told Yahoo Finance Monday in advance of the news. That's because "a tariff is a tax and although there's been some rhetoric that it's a tax on the foreigners, it's really a tax on the Americans."

Sosnick added he'll be watching to see if increased duties could "throw sand in the gears" of the overall US economy that has been outperforming expectations.

New research out of Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius said Trump's 2018-2019 tariffs on China led to price increases being borne "entirely" by US businesses and households.

The tariffs also enabled both domestic producers and non-Chinese exporters to the US to "opportunistically" raise their prices as well.

Hatzius estimates that every one percentage increase in the effective tariff rate would increase core consumer prices by just over 0.1%.

"The direct impact of higher tariffs on GDP is likely to be modestly negative, with the hit to real income and consumer spending from higher prices outweighing the decline in the trade deficit, especially if other countries retaliate," Hatzius warned.

Other increases announced Tuesday include an jump in solar cell tariffs that are set to double from 25% to 50%. There will also be a bump in semiconductor tariffs from 25% to 50% and an increase on the tariffs on battery parts to 25%.

Other industries will see new duties entirely. Ship-to-shore cranes will see new tariffs jump from 0% to 25%. Syringes and needles will increase from 0% to 50%.The politics of tariffsOne thing both Biden and Trump appear to agree on now is that tariffs should go up, not down.

The question is by how much.

In addition to new duties on China, Trump has also floated a 10% tariff on major US trading partners that he calls a "ring" around the US economy. He has also suggested a 100% tariff on foreign cars coming both from China and Mexico.

Trump weighed in on Biden's announcement during a rally this weekend in New Jersey, calling the move "about 4 years late" and saying that Biden should have gone further and expanded the 100% tariff on electric cars to all imported vehicles.

Biden's move is "only a ploy to get beyond the election," Trump concluded.Donald Trump arrives to speak during a campaign rally in New Jersey on May 11. (JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images) (JIM WATSON via Getty Images)Biden has also been on the receiving end of significant pressure from some key allies to keep tariffs high.

One influential figure in that debate is Senator Sherrod Brown. The Ohio Democrat is chair of the Senate's Banking committee and also in the middle of a difficult reelection fight that is set to be one of the most expensive race in the nation this year.

And even Brown is pushing Biden to go further, posting last week that tariffs aren't enough and "we need to ban Chinese EVs from the US."

Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor. He is also the host of the "Opening Bid" podcast. Follow Sozzi on Twitter/X @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn. Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance covering economic policy and the intersection of financial issues and the nation's capital.

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